Capital Flow / Macro Insights

DHL and NYU report shows global trade’s average cross-border distance hits record high, intra-regional flows fall to a new low, and U.S.-China ties keep weakening

Based on three given sources, the core conclusions of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 can be confirmed: in 2025, the average cross-border distance of global goods trade and greenfield FDI reached a record high, the share of intra-regional flows fell to a new low, globalization has not clearly retreated into separate geopolitical blocs, and trade ties between the United States and China continue to weaken. Claims about China’s industrial policy, clean-tech trade barriers, and the overseas relocation of corporate investment are mentioned only in part by some sources and cannot be jointly confirmed across all three.

TSO brief

  • Based on three given sources, the core conclusions of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 can be confirmed: in 2025, the average cross-border distance of global goods trade and greenfield FDI reached a record high, the share of intra-regional flows fell to a new low, globalization has not clearly retreated into separate geopolitical blocs, and trade ties between the United States and China continue to weaken. Claims about China’s industrial policy, clean-tech trade barriers, and the overseas relocation of corporate investment are mentioned only in part by some sources and cannot be jointly confirmed across all three.
  • Capital Flow · Macro Insights
  • May 17, 2026
TSO noteThis page adopts the new editorial article layout using the current public article fields. Structured source-by-source verdict data is not yet part of the public API.

Top-line views from the three sources and the TSO verification result:

  • Source 1 directly summarizes the core findings of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026: in 2025, the average cross-border distance of goods trade and greenfield FDI reached a “record high,” the world is “far from” splitting into isolated geopolitical blocs, and trade ties between the United States and China continue to weaken.

  • Source 2 focuses on China’s use of state power to strengthen dominance over global supply chains, and mentions that “Made in China 2025” helped China reduce import dependence and strengthen its position in areas such as electric vehicles and communications equipment.

  • Source 3 starts from the slowdown in clean-tech manufacturing, saying channels for Chinese goods to reach overseas markets are tightening, with high U.S. tariffs on Chinese clean-tech products and EU tariffs on electric vehicles, and notes that this has prompted some Chinese firms to shift investment overseas.

TSO verification result:

  • Confirmed: In 2025, the average cross-border distance of global goods trade and greenfield FDI hit a record high; the share of intra-regional flows declined to a new low; trade ties between the United States and China continued to weaken; globalization has not clearly retreated into fully fragmented blocs.

  • Partially confirmed: Sources 2 and 3 both discuss changes in China’s role in global supply chains and clean tech, but from different angles, and neither repeats the same report conclusion directly.

  • Not confirmed: The sources provided no verifiable details on why the average cross-border distance rose, the exact magnitude of the decline or share figures, or whether a broader trend of deglobalization is underway.

Facts jointly confirmed:

  1. The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 is about global connectedness, and its core conclusion is that global cross-border flows have not collapsed overall.

  2. In 2025, the average cross-border distance of goods trade and greenfield FDI reached a historic high.

  3. The share of intra-regional flows fell to a historic low.

  4. Trade ties between the United States and China continued to weaken.

Main disagreements or differences:

  1. Different narrative focus: Source 1 centers on the global connectedness indicators themselves; Source 2 focuses on China’s industrial policy and supply-chain dominance; Source 3 focuses on restricted clean-tech exports and the shift of corporate investment overseas.

  2. Different causal framing: Source 3 explicitly mentions U.S. and European tariffs tightening market access; Source 2 stresses China’s use of national strategy to upgrade industrial capacity. Both relate to China’s external trade environment, but the provided sources do not confirm that they belong to the same causal chain in the same report.

  3. Different data coverage: Source 1 provides the most direct report conclusion; Sources 2 and 3 only offer China-related extensions and cannot substitute for verification of the report’s overall data.

Background and analysis:
From the available sources, the report’s message is not that “globalization has disappeared,” but that the structure of global connectedness has changed: the average distance of cross-border trade and greenfield FDI has lengthened, suggesting economic activity is increasingly spread across greater distances; at the same time, the share of intra-regional flows has fallen, indicating that geographic proximity is becoming less important.
This does not mean the global economy has entered a complete decoupling phase. Source 1 explicitly says the world is “far from” splitting into mutually isolated geopolitical blocs. In other words, globalization remains, but its paths and direction are changing.
On U.S.-China relations, the three sources jointly support only the directional judgment that ties are weakening. Source 1 directly states that U.S.-China trade ties continue to weaken; Source 3 adds tightened market access and outward investment shifts; but the sources provided do not fully explain changes in capital, information, or people flows, so no further confirmation is possible.
As for China’s industrial policy and external pressure in clean tech, Sources 2 and 3 point to a broader background: on one hand, China’s earlier industrial strategy has strengthened its position in some sectors; on the other, restrictions in overseas markets on related Chinese products are increasing. Because there is no unified origin and no complete context, these points can only serve as background, not as conclusions jointly confirmed by all three sources.

Summary of the three sources:

  • Source 1: Directly gives the report’s core findings, stressing record-high average cross-border distance for global trade and greenfield FDI, a record low share of intra-regional flows, and continued weakening of U.S.-China ties.

  • Source 2: Emphasizes China’s use of state power and industrial policy to strengthen its supply-chain position and reduce import dependence.

  • Source 3: Emphasizes tighter restrictions in overseas markets on Chinese clean-tech goods and the resulting shift of corporate investment abroad.

Conclusion:
Taken together, the sources confirm that global connectedness has not clearly regressed into a fragmented pattern, but the geographic structure of trade and investment is changing, while economic ties between the United States and China continue to weaken. Deeper explanations involving China’s policies, tariff effects, and corporate overseas positioning differ in emphasis across the sources, and some information cannot be verified across all three materials.

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