Stories

Capital Flow

Shows how policy, balance sheets, market structure, and investor expectations transmit change across industries.

TSO / High confidence

IMF-Financial leaders address AI, debt, and geopolitical turmoil at the World Bank annual meeting

This report focuses on the core challenges facing financial leaders at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, such as AI, debt, and geopolitical turmoil. Experts analyzed the IMF's policy reviews regarding the debt sustainability framework, project design, and macroprudential regulation, and pointed out how three major shocks—the Russia-Ukraine conflict, surging demand for AI investment, and high public debt—have collectively pushed up long-term interest rates.

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TSO / High confidence

European Central Bank's Financial Stability Review warns: Middle East war threatens eurozone financial stability

The European Central Bank warned in its latest Financial Stability Review that the Middle East conflict has caused major disruption to global energy supplies, raising downside risks to inflation and growth. Although financial markets have adjusted in an orderly manner, asset prices remain fragile. Insufficient liquidity in non-bank financial institutions, concerns over sovereign debt sustainability, and hybrid threats such as cyberattacks could amplify shocks. The banking system remains relatively sound, but attention needs to be paid to exposures to energy-intensive industries and households' debt-servicing capacity. The review also includes four thematic studies.

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TSO / High confidence

European Central Bank releases May 2026 Financial Stability Review

The European Central Bank’s latest financial stability assessment report shows that the euro area’s financial system remains generally resilient, but faces multiple risks including interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and financial leverage. The report recommends that regulators continue to strengthen macroprudential measures to guard against systemic risks.

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TSO / High confidence

Gold is not falling, but currency is moving: an investor's strategic perspective

The recent decline in gold is not a collapse in value but a result of a stronger US dollar. The shift in US policy from a weak dollar to stable currency, combined with the pressure of treasury supply pushing up yields, has weighed on gold prices in the short term. However, in the long run, structural currency depreciation and geopolitical risks continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset. Investors should pay attention to the trend of fragmentation in the global monetary system.

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TSO / High confidence

Exclusive: Bank of Japan likely to maintain inflation warning but sees no significant increase in risks

According to informed sources, the Bank of Japan will maintain its warning about the risk of inflation overshooting at next week's policy meeting, but believes the risk has not significantly increased. The central bank will focus on the extent to which companies pass on costs, and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.

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